Research · Evaluation · Updated Oct 6, 2026

Did free buses bring more riders? Yes, about 30% more, mostly from people already riding.

For a year, from September 2023 to August 2024, the state paid for one bus route in each borough to run free. Weekday riders on those routes rose 30%, against 6% on all buses. Only 12% of riders were new to the route. Nearby routes lost about 5% of their paying riders and won them back when fares returned. The MTA put the cost at $16.5 million, about $4 for each extra trip.

What the pilot was for

The 2023 state budget told the MTA to make one bus route in each borough free for six to twelve months. The state capped the cost at $15 million. The MTA chose the Bx18A/B, B60, M116, Q4 and S46/S96.

The aims, as the MTA and the city’s budget office describe them

  1. Help riders who need it most. Routes were picked for “equity for low income and disadvantaged communities” (MTA).
  2. Reach jobs and shops. And for “access to employment and commercial area(s)” (MTA).
  3. Keep the test clean. Routes with room on board, little overlap with other buses, and known fare evasion levels (MTA).
  4. Measure what changes. The MTA reported riders, service delivered, speed, on-time journeys, time at stops, cost by route, frequency and assaults on bus operators. A 2025 bill to expand the pilot (S4421, not passed) lists the same measures.

Neither the MTA nor the law set a target, such as a number of new riders. We quote the MTA’s 1-year evaluation (June 2025) and the city’s Independent Budget Office (June 2026), not the budget law itself.

Did it work?

Free fares did what free fares usually do: more trips, mostly from people already riding. Service got a little worse, assaults on drivers fell, and the bill came in above the cap. The MTA did not report on rider satisfaction.

Aim by aim

    RouteRiders beforeWeekdaysWeekendsCostPer extra tripDriver assaultsSpeed

    Riders: weekday riders, September 2022–May 2023, and the change in the same months of the pilot, from the MTA’s passenger counters. Cost: the MTA’s full cost by route. Per extra trip: that cost over the MTA’s extra riders a day times the days of the pilot (our sum, rough). Driver assaults: verbal and physical, a year before and during. Speed: ours, against similar routes that kept fares.

    Nearby routes lost riders, then got them back

    Paid riders on nearby routes, against comparison routes

    Weekday fare taps, swipes and transfers. Each month against October 2022–August 2023.

    Speed on the same nearby routes, against comparison routes

    Weekdays, all day.

    RouteNext toPaid riders beforePaid ridersSpeed

    The 19 routes with at least a fifth of their path within 400 m of a free route. Each is compared with up to five routes in its borough that run nowhere near a free route and were closest to it in speed and paid riders. Paid riders before: a weekday, October 2022–August 2023. Changes: October 2023–August 2024 against a year before, minus the change on the comparison routes.

    Where the new trips came from

      Free routes didn’t get faster

      Riders no longer stopped to pay, but more of them got on. Against similar routes in the same boroughs that kept fares, the free routes slowed by 1.4%, most of it in the summer of 2024. That gap didn’t close when fares came back, so we can’t pin it all on free fares. What the data does rule out is a speed-up.

      Speed, free routes against comparison routes, by month

      Each month against October 2022–August 2023. Average of the five routes.

      Things worth knowing

        How this works

        The riders on the free routes, the survey, the costs and the service figures are the MTA’s. The free routes’ own fare taps fell to almost nothing while they were free, so public data can’t count their riders in that year. Our own work covers what public data can show: paid riders and speed on nearby routes, and speed on the free routes.

        • The yearsOctober to August, to skip September 2023, when the pilot began part-way through (September 24). Before: October 2022–August 2023. Fare-free: October 2023–August 2024. After: October 2024–May 2025, stopping before the Bronx and Queens redesigns of late June 2025.
        • Comparison routesLocal or limited routes in the same borough that run nowhere near a free route (under 5% of their path within 400 m) and not in Manhattan’s congestion zone, picked as the five closest in speed and paid riders before the pilot.
        • The effectFor each route, the change against the same months a year before, minus the average change on its comparison routes. Free routes count equally; nearby routes are weighted by their paid riders. The 95% intervals come from resampling routes, and each route’s comparison routes, 2,000 times.
        • Nearby routesAt least a fifth of the path within 400 m of a free route, using each route’s timepoint stops in June 2023.
        • Cost per extra tripThe MTA’s $16.5 million full cost over the MTA’s extra riders a day (weekdays and weekends, school months and summer) times the 343 days of the pilot.
        • What we leave outWeekends (in our own numbers); express and Select Bus Service routes; September of every year; the Bx18’s speeds before October 2022, when its numbers jump.

        Caveats: five free routes and 19 nearby routes are small samples, and the intervals are rough. Fare taps miss riders who don’t pay, so part of the drop on nearby routes may be more fare evasion rather than fewer riders. The survey shares are read off the MTA’s charts. The free routes were picked for low crowding and little overlap with other service, so a citywide program would not behave the same way. The slowdown on the free routes didn’t reverse when fares came back; something else about those routes may have changed in 2024.